Bumper Repair Cost Repaint

Market situation of milk collection in September 2010

The Tunisian dairy sector is doing well there?

The answer is yes given the figures on the market for milk collection (by passing the milk collection centers) that are in my opinion the most reliable as the grant of collection and cooling is calculated on the basis of these data.

At the end of September approximately 501 million L have passed through the system of collection centers cons 466,000,000 L during the same period 2009 (7.6% are 35 million plus L). During the month of September we recorded the strongest growth (+15.8% is 1,633,000 L / d in September 2010 vs. . 1,410,000 L / d in September 2009) (GIVRLAIT 2010)

This boom dairy we discussed earlier (see note published on this site 19/04/10) comes from the additive effect of several factors: i) the successive revisions of the producer price occurred since September 2007 ii) revision of the ceiling of the collection of 5 million liters per collection center per year to 7,000,000 L per center per year, iii) migration of milk in the informal sector to the organized sector and iv) but with lower proportions of fraudulent use of whey.

However we must not forget the other side of the coin: a huge stock of drinking milk, among other things caused by a fall in consumption. This decline could be explained in part by i) a tourist season below expectations (and because the onset of Ramadan during the summer season and ii) the excess of the psychological price of more than 1 package milk Dt

As we expected (see note published on this site 01/09/10) the quasi-totality of Dairy operators have passed their difficulties in stocking their purchasing activity and reception of raw milk which resulted in many casualties among the collection centers. Obviously if we want to see the glass as half full, these measures have helped to have raw milk from a physico-chemical almost "perfect" (the microbiological quality of raw milk Tunisia will be discussed later)

Department Trade has allocated a quota to export 3 million liters of milk for all dairy operators (milk beverage), but this measure is laudable not solve the problem of these operators. The Algerian market remains inaccessible and knows the Libyan market hegemony of dairy products (all categories) but the Egyptian advantage of our products remains a much higher quality for equivalent prices. These approaches require exploration of time not playing for different operators.

The outcome of this crisis positively or negatively affect the next lactation, which is already proving difficult because of speculation in the markets for different feed concentrates simple.

Punsch Aus Christmas Vacation

roughage and concentrate feed simple: Risk of shortage or beginnings of a speculation? Recommanndations.

An article published this morning by the newspaper "Assabah" attracted attention with its content is alarmist predicting a doomsday scenario reminiscent of the milk crisis in late 2007 and early 2008 with its share of slaughter of cattle, of inflation (significant increase in feed concentrates, three increases in the minimum guaranteed price for raw milk production ,...).

I believe a repeat of this scenario is unlikely even if price increases in roughage and concentrate feeds are likely, but such increases would be below the levels achieved in 2007 and 2008.

The analysts FAO are unanimous about the tensions that might know the market in cereals and oilseeds, but these tensions might not hinder the balance between supply and demand. We will be away for example $ 800 per tonne for wheat and $ 400 per tonne of barley (arrival ports of Tunisia). The prices of these cereals could stabilize around $ 300 and $ 180 per tonne (see www.fao.org). If temporary measures are legislated to suspend the VAT on such feed concentrates (for information these foods account for 50 to 60% of the ration of dairy cattle in Tunisia), our farmers do not experience difficult days.

Thus, decreased production and milk collection would be unlikely. Indeed, the current prices were level from upstream dairy can save a good operating margin for the farmers. I want to reiterate that this price (580 millimes / L at least) is higher than prices for example in France (between 520 and 540 millimes / L) for an incomparable quality.

And then the speculation?

Approaching the low season (September through January) the refrain on the slaughter or cross-border transfer of dairy cattle is taken up by milk collectors for hope price increases to cover a direct sale of raw milk, or legitimize the adulteration of milk .... And as if by chance the milk is flowing once we reach the month of February.

In my opinion, the establishment of a strategy to improve national cereal production has to include the restructuring of the dairy and forage production. The current system of milk production and collection has achieved its goals but has also shown its limits. Let me explain



There are over 110 000 "farmers" or most of which are pseudo-farmers who lack the qualifications to properly conduct a breeding even less than 5 cows. Most of these micro-herds suffering from subclinical mastitis, acidosis latent, and other metabolic diseases ... Provides guidance and training to the whole population is a daunting task even if all the operators will emit to achieve it ...

The other major problem is the non-dairy sole prevailing in the central coast, central and southern steppe is (except the special case of Gabes). This type of farming coupled with the constraints mentioned in the previous paragraph is very sensitive to changes in the prices of food and roughage concentrated simple. For how long we will still see the governorates of Mahdia and Sfax ahead of the governorates of Jendouba, Beja and Bizerte in terms of collection of milk? For how long we will be endorsing such an aberration?

strategy in 10 to 15 years is thinking to allow the transition to a production system based on specialized dairy farms and viable. My favorite scenario

?

Place 40 000 ha of irrigated plain of Bousalem, the 10 000 ha of lowland hydromorphic mabtouh through the implementation of works, as the 30 000 ha of grasslands Sejenène can easily accommodate 160 000 Holstein. Makers to see the optimal size of herds (economically speaking) and to the accounts (costs of conversion of 95% pseudo-farmers to other vocations ....).

proléfique I will be more in future notes

Installing Slate Over Drywall

Destocking milk drink: hello would it with the new school of exports or targeted? Record

As we mentioned in a previous note (see: Stock Technical milk drink) the Department of Commerce has regulated this year and storage operations destocking of drinking milk to avoid shortages. The initial aim of storing about 50 million L was exceeded by 20% to the level of 60 million L.

However laudable the intention to avoid shortages caused other problems. All operators of the milk beverage industry are struggling to liquidate their excess inventory for a variety of reasons: poor sales because of poor quality, poor sales due to logistical problems, blocking the reception to avoid supply of stock with the risk of losing suppliers of raw milk, ...

In addition, a ralentissemnet consumption of milk was raised: tourist season shortened by the onset of Ramadan during the month of August, changing eating habits during the summer ...

The financial impact of this slow pace of destocking may be detrimental to the operators of the industry milk drink. Lengthening the rotation of stock in excess of 60 days results in significant losses in the finished product, and because the initial microbiological quality of raw milk to dairies and reaching that oscillates around 107 colonies / mL on average. This microbial load with a lot of pathogens, and spore heat-resistant enzymes are found malgrés degermination and UHT sterilization in finished products. Therefore the stability of our UHT milk is compromised after 45 to 60 days. You have to figure the amount of losses due to a lengthening of the rotation of stock.

The solution?

In principle all operators hope to accelerate the destocking of inventories of UHT milk with the recovery in consumption that usually accompanies the start of school. If this scenario does not realize permits for export must be granted by regulators to operators of industrial milk drinking. Fixing the next stock for fiscal 2011 should be carefully considered in order to alleviate Lafois the interests of consumers but also the interests of dairy operators