An article published this morning by the newspaper "Assabah" attracted attention with its content is alarmist predicting a doomsday scenario reminiscent of the milk crisis in late 2007 and early 2008 with its share of slaughter of cattle, of inflation (significant increase in feed concentrates, three increases in the minimum guaranteed price for raw milk production ,...).
I believe a repeat of this scenario is unlikely even if price increases in roughage and concentrate feeds are likely, but such increases would be below the levels achieved in 2007 and 2008.
The analysts FAO are unanimous about the tensions that might know the market in cereals and oilseeds, but these tensions might not hinder the balance between supply and demand. We will be away for example $ 800 per tonne for wheat and $ 400 per tonne of barley (arrival ports of Tunisia). The prices of these cereals could stabilize around $ 300 and $ 180 per tonne (see www.fao.org). If temporary measures are legislated to suspend the VAT on such feed concentrates (for information these foods account for 50 to 60% of the ration of dairy cattle in Tunisia), our farmers do not experience difficult days.
Thus, decreased production and milk collection would be unlikely. Indeed, the current prices were level from upstream dairy can save a good operating margin for the farmers. I want to reiterate that this price (580 millimes / L at least) is higher than prices for example in France (between 520 and 540 millimes / L) for an incomparable quality.
And then the speculation?
Approaching the low season (September through January) the refrain on the slaughter or cross-border transfer of dairy cattle is taken up by milk collectors for hope price increases to cover a direct sale of raw milk, or legitimize the adulteration of milk .... And as if by chance the milk is flowing once we reach the month of February.
In my opinion, the establishment of a strategy to improve national cereal production has to include the restructuring of the dairy and forage production. The current system of milk production and collection has achieved its goals but has also shown its limits. Let me explain
There are over 110 000 "farmers" or most of which are pseudo-farmers who lack the qualifications to properly conduct a breeding even less than 5 cows. Most of these micro-herds suffering from subclinical mastitis, acidosis latent, and other metabolic diseases ... Provides guidance and training to the whole population is a daunting task even if all the operators will emit to achieve it ...
The other major problem is the non-dairy sole prevailing in the central coast, central and southern steppe is (except the special case of Gabes). This type of farming coupled with the constraints mentioned in the previous paragraph is very sensitive to changes in the prices of food and roughage concentrated simple. For how long we will still see the governorates of Mahdia and Sfax ahead of the governorates of Jendouba, Beja and Bizerte in terms of collection of milk? For how long we will be endorsing such an aberration?
strategy in 10 to 15 years is thinking to allow the transition to a production system based on specialized dairy farms and viable. My favorite scenario
?
Place 40 000 ha of irrigated plain of Bousalem, the 10 000 ha of lowland hydromorphic mabtouh through the implementation of works, as the 30 000 ha of grasslands Sejenène can easily accommodate 160 000 Holstein. Makers to see the optimal size of herds (economically speaking) and to the accounts (costs of conversion of 95% pseudo-farmers to other vocations ....).
proléfique I will be more in future notes I believe a repeat of this scenario is unlikely even if price increases in roughage and concentrate feeds are likely, but such increases would be below the levels achieved in 2007 and 2008.
The analysts FAO are unanimous about the tensions that might know the market in cereals and oilseeds, but these tensions might not hinder the balance between supply and demand. We will be away for example $ 800 per tonne for wheat and $ 400 per tonne of barley (arrival ports of Tunisia). The prices of these cereals could stabilize around $ 300 and $ 180 per tonne (see www.fao.org). If temporary measures are legislated to suspend the VAT on such feed concentrates (for information these foods account for 50 to 60% of the ration of dairy cattle in Tunisia), our farmers do not experience difficult days.
Thus, decreased production and milk collection would be unlikely. Indeed, the current prices were level from upstream dairy can save a good operating margin for the farmers. I want to reiterate that this price (580 millimes / L at least) is higher than prices for example in France (between 520 and 540 millimes / L) for an incomparable quality.
And then the speculation?
Approaching the low season (September through January) the refrain on the slaughter or cross-border transfer of dairy cattle is taken up by milk collectors for hope price increases to cover a direct sale of raw milk, or legitimize the adulteration of milk .... And as if by chance the milk is flowing once we reach the month of February.
In my opinion, the establishment of a strategy to improve national cereal production has to include the restructuring of the dairy and forage production. The current system of milk production and collection has achieved its goals but has also shown its limits. Let me explain
There are over 110 000 "farmers" or most of which are pseudo-farmers who lack the qualifications to properly conduct a breeding even less than 5 cows. Most of these micro-herds suffering from subclinical mastitis, acidosis latent, and other metabolic diseases ... Provides guidance and training to the whole population is a daunting task even if all the operators will emit to achieve it ...
The other major problem is the non-dairy sole prevailing in the central coast, central and southern steppe is (except the special case of Gabes). This type of farming coupled with the constraints mentioned in the previous paragraph is very sensitive to changes in the prices of food and roughage concentrated simple. For how long we will still see the governorates of Mahdia and Sfax ahead of the governorates of Jendouba, Beja and Bizerte in terms of collection of milk? For how long we will be endorsing such an aberration?
strategy in 10 to 15 years is thinking to allow the transition to a production system based on specialized dairy farms and viable. My favorite scenario
?
Place 40 000 ha of irrigated plain of Bousalem, the 10 000 ha of lowland hydromorphic mabtouh through the implementation of works, as the 30 000 ha of grasslands Sejenène can easily accommodate 160 000 Holstein. Makers to see the optimal size of herds (economically speaking) and to the accounts (costs of conversion of 95% pseudo-farmers to other vocations ....).
